EB-2 NIW approval rate trends show a fall from 95.7% in FY2022 to a low of 35.7% in FY2025 Q4, followed by three straight quarterly gains to 55.3% in FY2026 Q3 (April to June 2026). The rate is calculated as approvals divided by approvals plus denials, from USCIS Form I-140 data.
Key Takeaways
- The EB-2 NIW approval rate dropped from 95.7% in FY2022 to 55.3% in FY2026 Q3 after a volume surge, January 2025 USCIS guidance, and tighter scrutiny of Dhanasar prong two evidence.
- Three consecutive quarterly gains (35.7% → 42.5% → 48.1% → 55.3%) show a real recovery, but the rate still sits below the 67.3% high-water mark.
- Approval odds vary sharply by field and country. Recent tracking showed research profiles near 70% while some industry profiles averaged about 33%, and priority-date backlogs for India and China often matter more than approval-rate shifts.
- Pending cases, currently 96,297, are excluded from the approval-rate calculation and signal processing delay rather than a hidden denial wave.
- Jumpstart Immigration files U.S. visa and green-card petitions for founders worldwide, with a 98% approval rate. Our methodology is trained directly on USCIS adjudicator decisions.
Talk to Jumpstart About Your NIW Strategy
EB-2 NIW Approval Rate Trends by Quarter (FY2022 to FY2026)
USCIS Immigration and Citizenship Data publishes quarterly Form I-140 counts of approvals, denials, and pending cases. USCIS does not publish a precomputed approval rate, so the figures here use approvals ÷ (approvals + denials), excluding pending cases. The list below traces the full arc: a peak above 95% in FY2022, a three-year slide, a low of 35.7% in FY2025 Q4, and three straight quarterly gains since.
- FY2022: 95.7% approval, with 10,316 approved and 468 denied.
- FY2023: 79.6% approval, as filings nearly doubled.
- FY2024: 71.0% approval, with scrutiny tightening.
- FY2025: 55.2% approval, after the January 2025 guidance took effect.
- FY2025 Q4 (July to September 2025): 35.7% approval, the lowest quarter on record, when denials exceeded approvals.
- FY2026 Q1 (October to December 2025): 42.5% approval, the first quarterly gain.
- FY2026 Q2 (January to March 2026): 48.1% approval, the second quarterly gain.
- FY2026 Q3 (April to June 2026): 55.3% approval, the third consecutive quarterly gain.
The current EB-2 NIW approval rate is 55.3%, based on USCIS I-140 adjudication data for FY2026 Q3 (April to June 2026). That quarter covered 3,835 approvals and 3,103 denials out of 6,938 decided cases. FY2026 Q3 was also the first quarter since mid-2025 in which NIW approvals exceeded denials.
For a deeper explanation of how the rate is defined and what it historically means, see National Interest Waiver Approval Rate Explained and EB-2 NIW Approval Rate 2026: What Founders Need To Know.
Have Your Evidence Profile Reviewed
Why the EB-2 NIW Approval Rate Fell
Three documented drivers explain the decline, and each one connects directly to a Dhanasar prong in a way that affects your filing strategy.
Driver 1: The Volume Surge
USCIS I-140 data shows that EB-2 NIW receipts rose from 21,973 in FY2022 to 66,276 in FY2025, roughly a threefold increase. As the NIW spread through tech and research communities, the filing pool expanded to include many less-prepared petitions. The aggregate approval rate now reflects that broader mix as much as any policy shift. A strong, well-documented petition filed in a high-volume year performs differently from the average petition filed that year.
Driver 2: The January 15, 2025 USCIS Policy Guidance
USCIS policy guidance issued January 15, 2025 updated the Policy Manual chapter governing EB-2 NIW adjudication. It kept the Matter of Dhanasar framework but made the order of review explicit and controlling. Officers must confirm EB-2 eligibility first, as an advanced-degree professional or person of exceptional ability, before reaching the Dhanasar waiver analysis. A petition can now be denied at this first gate without the national interest argument ever being evaluated. Petitions that previously survived on a compelling endeavor narrative, without close attention to EB-2 fit, now often fail before the waiver analysis begins.
Driver 3: Stricter Scrutiny Of Dhanasar Prong Two
Prong two, which asks whether the petitioner is well positioned to advance the proposed endeavor, has become the most scrutinized prong. Generic recommendation letters are being cited as insufficient in RFEs and denials. The problem lies in what they leave out, such as what the petitioner specifically did, how the recommender knows, and what evidence supports each claim.
USCIS guidance and recent practice summaries highlight the evidence that carries weight. Strong records include funding history tied to the endeavor, documented progress such as adopted publications or products in use, patents granted, partnerships or pilots completed, contracts or licensing agreements, and letters from independent experts with firsthand knowledge who give specific examples of how you are positioned to execute.
Before filing, assess your own evidence against three points. Confirm that your EB-2 basis connects directly to the occupation underlying your proposed endeavor. Show national importance at the level of your specific project rather than your field. Assemble independent, corroborated evidence that you are positioned to advance the endeavor.
Is the EB-2 NIW Approval Rate Recovering?
Three consecutive quarterly increases, from 35.7% to 42.5%, 48.1% and 55.3%, mark a meaningful shift in direction. FY2026 Q3 was the first quarter since mid-2025 in which approvals exceeded denials, with 3,835 approvals against 3,103 denials according to USCIS I-140 data.
The recovery is real, yet the current 55.3% rate remains below the 67.3% recorded in FY2025 Q2, the last high-water mark before the collapse. From FY2023 onward, the quarterly series shows five upward movements against nine downward ones, so three rising quarters do not guarantee a fourth.
For your decision, the trend is improving, the standard is stricter than in 2022, and waiting for another data point delays your priority date. For applicants born in India or China, where the EB-2 queue runs for years, that earlier priority date often matters more than marginal shifts in the approval rate. See EB-2 NIW Priority Date: How to Read and Track Yours for a full explanation.
What the EB-2 NIW Approval Rate Means for Your Case
The aggregate approval rate does not equal your personal approval rate. USCIS does not publish approval rates by field or country, so the 55.3% figure blends rushed template filings with meticulously documented cases and cannot describe your specific odds.
Field Segmentation
Recent third-party tracking of 205 EB-2 NIW cases decided between July and October 2026 found research profiles approved 70% of the time, while industry profiles were approved 33% of the time. Within industry profiles, CS/Software/Data cases ran 18 approvals against 31 denials, Engineering ran 29 approvals against 15 denials, Medicine/Health ran 28 approvals against 9 denials, Life Sciences/Biotech ran 16 approvals against 6 denials, and Business/Finance/Economics ran 4 approvals against 9 denials.
These crowdsourced figures do not represent a national rate, but the pattern tracks current guidance. STEM endeavors map more easily onto federally designated priority sectors. Non-STEM petitions often need a more deliberate evidence structure anchored to a specific national priority. Industry-profile applicants should also plan for a Request for Evidence, as an RFE was the first USCIS action on 87 of 93 tracked industry cases in that dataset. Since USCIS’s August 5, 2026 Policy Alert, officers can also deny a petition that is missing required initial evidence without sending an RFE first, so an RFE is not a guaranteed second chance.
Country Segmentation
USCIS does not publish country-level denial counts, so country-specific approval rates cannot be calculated. The data does show filing volume and approvals by country. In FY2025, China led with 12,081 filings and 5,091 approvals, India ranked second with 9,196 filings and 2,892 approvals, Iran ranked third with 3,871 filings and 1,681 approvals, and Nigeria ranked fourth with 3,584 filings and 1,187 approvals.
For applicants born in India and China, the priority date question usually outweighs the approval-rate question. In the November 2026 Visa Bulletin, EB-2 India carries a final action date of November 1, 2013, and EB-2 China carries October 1, 2021. An approved I-140 does not immediately yield a green card for those applicants. The NIW’s value lies in self-petitioning, which bypasses the multi-year PERM labor certification process and locks in an earlier priority date. For applicants born in Nigeria, Brazil, Iran, and most other countries, EB-2 remained current for much of 2026, although the October 2026 Visa Bulletin moved Rest of World to a January 1, 2025 final action date, and the November 2026 bulletin moved it to April 1, 2025. For the full month-by-month breakdown by country, see Jumpstart’s Visa Bulletin November 2026: Who Moved, Who Did Not, By Country.
How to Read Your Own Odds
Field and country set the backdrop, but neither decides your case on its own. Three inputs shape your personal risk profile more than the aggregate rate:
- Field: Check whether your proposed endeavor fits a federally named priority sector or requires a more detailed national-importance argument.
- Country: Decide whether your binding constraint is the priority date or the I-140 approval itself.
- Evidence quality: Gather independent, corroborated documentation of positioning that answers prong two directly, rather than relying on credentials alone.
Get a Personalized NIW Risk Assessment
Pending Petitions Are Not Denials
The 96,297 pending EB-2 NIW petitions at the end of FY2026 Q3, up from 82,935 at the end of FY2026 Q1, often cause confusion in forums and immigration discussions. Pending cases have no outcome and stay outside the approval-rate calculation, which uses approvals ÷ (approvals + denials) among decided cases only.
A growing pending backlog signals delay rather than denial. USCIS I-140 data shows that USCIS decided 6,938 NIW cases in FY2026 Q3 while receiving 13,831 new petitions. The queue is therefore growing faster than it is being resolved, which produces longer wait times for action on a case already in the system. Premium processing, which guarantees an initial USCIS action within 45 business days, remains the main tool for managing that delay without changing approval probability.
How Hard It Is to Get an EB-2 NIW in 2026 and Whether You Should File Now
With the backlog explained, the practical question remains. Getting an EB-2 NIW approved in 2026 is meaningfully harder than in 2022, yet the trend is improving, and a well-documented petition filed now captures an earlier priority date than one filed after another quarter confirms the recovery.
Two forces are pulling in opposite directions. The standard is stricter because the January 2025 guidance made EB-2 eligibility a substantive gate that officers now test directly, and USCIS is pressing harder on prong two evidence of actual positioning. The trend is improving, with three consecutive quarterly gains lifting the rate from its 35.7% low in FY2025 Q4 to 55.3%. The growing backlog discussed above signals delay rather than denial.
For founders with strong evidence, the FY2026 Q3 data shows the most favorable filing environment since mid-2025. That means documented traction, independent letters with specifics, and a clearly defined endeavor with national-level impact. For founders with thin evidence built for a 2022 adjudication environment, the same environment will likely produce an RFE or denial regardless of the aggregate rate.
How to Strengthen Your EB-2 NIW Petition Against the Stricter Standard
This checklist maps each Dhanasar prong to the evidence USCIS weighs most heavily under the January 2025 guidance. For process and timeline details, see EB-2 NIW Process: Step-by-Step Guide to Self-Petitioning and EB-2 NIW I-140 Processing Time In 2026.
- Prong One, Substantial Merit and National Importance: Define the specific endeavor rather than the broad field. State the prospective national-level impact, such as public health benefit, critical technology adoption, or economic competitiveness in a named federal priority sector. Cite government reports, legislative frameworks, or published strategic priorities that name your area, and avoid arguments that only claim your occupation or industry is generally important.
- Prong Two, Well Positioned to Advance the Endeavor: Document funding history such as grants, awards, or investment tied to the endeavor, along with patents, products in active use, contracts or licensing agreements, completed pilots, and institutional affiliations that show capacity to advance the work. Secure independent letters from experts outside your institution who explain specifically what you did, how they know, and what changed as a result. A letter that only describes you as “brilliant” without those specifics weakens your case.
- Prong Three, Waiver Benefits the United States: Explain why labor certification would be impractical or counterproductive for your specific endeavor. Common angles include self-employment structures that do not fit a traditional job offer, time-sensitive work that a multi-year certification process would compromise, and expertise that standard recruitment cannot readily replicate.
- EB-2 Threshold, Gate One: Confirm that the occupation underlying your proposed endeavor normally requires at least a bachelor’s degree for entry. If you rely on a bachelor’s degree plus five years of progressive experience, verify that the experience is post-baccalaureate and in the same specialty as both the degree and the endeavor.
Before you commit to NIW, confirm that it is the right category for your profile. Two alternatives sit close enough to warrant comparison.
EB-2 NIW vs. EB-1A and vs. EB-2 PERM
EB-1A (extraordinary ability) requires sustained national or international acclaim demonstrated by meeting at least three of ten regulatory criteria or a one-time major internationally recognized award, which creates a higher evidentiary bar than EB-2 NIW. As of FY2026 Q3, the EB-1A approval rate has fallen to 32.2%, its sixth consecutive quarterly decline, compared with NIW’s 55.3%. For most founders, NIW is currently the stronger self-petition path on approval odds alone, though applicants born in India may still pursue both categories simultaneously to hold two separate priority-date queues.
EB-2 PERM requires employer sponsorship and a multi-year labor certification process through the Department of Labor. It carries a high approval rate, as employer-sponsored EB-2 approvals ran at approximately 97% in FY2026 Q3, but it eliminates self-petitioning, ties the applicant to a specific employer, and adds years to the timeline before an I-140 can be filed. NIW’s value lies in bypassing PERM entirely.
Frequently Asked Questions
How Hard Is It to Get an EB-2 NIW?
The EB-2 NIW is meaningfully harder to obtain in 2026 than it was in 2022. The January 2025 USCIS policy guidance added a substantive first gate that confirms EB-2 eligibility before the Dhanasar waiver analysis and tightened the evidentiary standard for prong two. A petition built on strong, independently corroborated evidence of a specific nationally important endeavor continues to be approved even in cycles with lower aggregate rates. A petition built on credentials alone, or on a generic business plan without documented traction, faces a high probability of an RFE or denial.
What Is the Current EB-2 NIW I-140 Approval Rate?
The most recent figure is 55.3% for FY2026 Q3, as detailed above. USCIS does not publish a precomputed rate, so this figure uses approvals ÷ (approvals + denials) among decided cases only. The year-to-date FY2026 figure across Q1 to Q3 is 49.1%.
Is EB-2 NIW Faster Than EB-2 PERM?
For the I-140 stage, NIW and PERM differ in standard processing time. Per USCIS data accessed October 5, 2026, the EB-2 NIW I-140 80th-percentile standard time is 30 months, while the EB-2 PERM-based I-140 is about 3 months, excluding the prior 12 to 24 or more months at the Department of Labor.
The Department of Labor’s PERM labor certification process typically takes about 14 to 18 months from the prevailing wage determination filing to certification for an unaudited case. DOL reported an average of 336 calendar days for analyst review as of August 2026. Audits and other delays can push the total to two to three years before an I-140 is filed. NIW also allows self-petitioning, so no employer sponsorship is required. For applicants born in India and China, both categories share the same EB-2 visa queue, so the priority date rather than the I-140 processing time usually becomes the binding constraint.
Can I Apply for EB-2 NIW by Myself?
Yes. The EB-2 NIW is a self-petition, so no employer sponsor or job offer is required. You file Form I-140 directly with USCIS and bear the burden of establishing EB-2 eligibility and satisfying all three Dhanasar prongs. In practice, the January 2025 guidance has made petition drafting substantially more demanding. Officers now expect a comprehensive legal brief with a detailed endeavor statement, explicit prong-by-prong analysis, and independently corroborated documentary evidence. Most petitioners work with a qualified immigration attorney or a firm whose methodology aligns with current adjudicator standards.
Is Now a Good Time to File an EB-2 NIW?
For a well-documented petition, now is a reasonable time to file. The approval rate has risen for three consecutive quarters, reaching 55.3% in FY2026 Q3, the highest since mid-2025. Filing now captures an earlier priority date than waiting for further data, which matters most for applicants born in India and China. The standard is stricter than in 2022, so petition quality matters more than timing. A thin petition filed during a recovery quarter will still be denied, while a strong petition filed now benefits from both the improving trend and an earlier priority date.
What Is The Current Processing Time For EB-2 NIW?
As of October 2026, USCIS reports that 80% of EB-2 NIW I-140 petitions are completed within 30 months under standard processing. Premium processing, which costs $2,965, requires USCIS to take an initial action within 45 business days. After I-140 approval, the green card wait depends on the Visa Bulletin. See EB-2 NIW Processing Time: Full Timeline Guide 2026 for the full timeline.
What Are The Chances Of Getting Approved For An EB-2 NIW Green Card?
In FY2026 Q3, USCIS approved 55.3% of decided EB-2 NIW petitions, and 49.1% across the first three quarters of FY2026. These are averages across all filings, so they do not predict the result of a specific case, which depends on how well the evidence answers each Dhanasar prong.
Is EB-2 NIW Better Than H-1B?
They serve different purposes. The H-1B is a temporary work visa that needs an employer sponsor, while the EB-2 NIW is a green card you can file for yourself, without an employer or job offer. Which one fits depends on the profile, so readers should talk to an immigration attorney.
How Much Does EB-2 NIW Cost?
The cost has three parts: USCIS filing fees, optional premium processing and professional fees. Premium processing for an NIW petition costs $2,965. See EB-2 NIW Cost In 2026 for a full breakdown.
What Is The EB-2 NIW Approval Rate By Country?
USCIS does not publish denial counts by country, so a country-level approval rate cannot be calculated. It does publish filings and approvals: in FY2025, China led with 12,081 filings and 5,091 approvals, followed by India with 9,196 filings and 2,892 approvals.
Conclusion: How to Use the Trend in Your NIW Decision
The data tells a clear story. The NIW became harder to win, then started to recover, and the standard did not return to its 2022 ease. What matters for you is less the aggregate rate and more whether your evidence answers the Dhanasar prongs under the current guidance.
Your outcome turns on three specifics. Your EB-2 basis must connect to the occupation behind your proposed endeavor. Your national importance argument must focus on your endeavor rather than your field. Your prong two evidence must document real positioning, not just credentials.
Jumpstart Immigration files U.S. visa and green-card petitions for founders worldwide, with a 98% approval rate. Our methodology is trained directly on USCIS adjudicator decisions.
Start Your NIW Evaluation With Jumpstart
*Jumpstart is not a law firm and does not provide legal advice. All legal services are performed by independent licensed attorneys.
